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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."