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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.